Reem With A View

"Names and attributes must be accommodated to the essence of things, and not the essence to the names, since things come first and names afterwards." – Galileo

Will Nadal burn out at age 26 like Bjorn Borg?

I found interesting similarities in the Grand Slam runs between Sampras and Federer as well as Borg and Nadal in terms of their Age vs Slams won!

(Note that have taken 31 yrs as maximum age considering Sampras retired at that age for apples to apples comparison for the 14 slam win rate).

Some important pointers:

1. Pete Sampras had only 3 wins in his last 16 slams.

2. Roger Federer needs only ONE win in his next 15 slams to equal Sampras and just 2 to break the world record.

3.  Nadal has more than 35 slams to beat Sampras, and is close to beating Borg’s slam total by age 23

4. Borg had the highest rate of slams by age 23 and played only 3 slams a year. He never played a lot of Aussie opens (except early on in 1974 types ) as he kept losing US Opens . Borg didn’t feel Aussie Open was important unless he won the US Open.

Nadal seems to be slightly behind Borg’s run rate. And Federer’s win rate is next to Borg despite playing way longer schedules. Unbelievable.

Nadal too may burn out like Borg especially because his game is more Physical than Federer’s and the body takes punishment on hard courts. Nadal also won’t be able to maintain the speed and power beyond age 25-26…as the tennis schedules are too long now days. Federer’s game like Sampras suits long term play.

Grand Slam wins

Grand Slam wins

But I feel even if Nadal wins 15 slams and Federer wins the French, they can still be called greatest only of the MODERN era as people forget Rod Laver and Ken Rosewall were banned for more than 44 Slams due to them turning PRO… Rosewall lost peak 11 years of his life. It was Laver and Rosewall’s efforts which led to the Open era in the first place and modern players from Borg to Nadal and Federer have to be thankful for them. Between them, Laver and Rosewall would have won 20+ slams if allowed to play as there was no one close to them. And it isn’t their problem that Hardcourts weren’t provided for Slams, as either would have won for SURE if there was that surface provided.  It is for this reason, that historians will ALWAYS place Rod Laver and Ken Rosewall as the Greatest Tennis Players of ALL TIME.  To beat them, the minimum no. of slam which Federer or Nadal must win are 20, else there is no comparison for the unfair way in which Laver/Rosewall were prevented for 44 Slams simply because they turned Pro.

For a detailed perspective, please also read the following article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/119898-the-hall-of-goats

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3 Responses

  1. kevin says:

    A good read…thanks.

    It could have been a little better, however, if you double checked your facts. Here’s a couple of the more egregious errors:

    1.) Borg did play in the Aussie Open in ’74 early in his career. He just never went back.
    2.) Your chart shows Nadal winning a GS at age 23. Hard even for determined Rafa as he’s still only 22! You need to move last months AO title to the 22 column as he won three GS in his twenty-second year.

    You make some very interesting points when you talk about the effect the Open Era has had on Grand Slam titles. Laver missed 24 GS after he turned pro and the “pros” were finally allowed back in. Yet he still got 11 GS titles.

    Roy won 12 Grand Slams — third on the all time list. Yet 10 of his trophies were hoisted from 1963 through 1967, when he didn’t have to compete with Laver and other “banned” pros.

    I came across a very interesting read that argued that perhaps more factors should be considered that just GS titles in the “greatest of all time” (GOAT) debate. You can it here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/119898-the-hall-of-goats.

    • Reem Saied says:

      Thanks for pointing this out Kevin.
      I tool calender years for everyone in a similar way to make excel faster and easy to read. Ideally have to break it in no. of months for precise comparison.
      Nadal for example in June will turn 23. So he won Aus Open as 22yr old, but may win wimbledon as 23yr old 😦

      I just wanted to show how Borg and Nadal accumulating slams early on while Federer seems to be heading the Sampras way.
      But I agree that Roy Emerson is overrated…and people underestimate how great Laver and Rosewall.. These 2 were true greats.

      I agree with ur point, and will link your Blog article in the main post.

  2. bk says:

    its a toss-up between laver and rosewall as to who is the true GOAT (at least since 1950). Frankly, I think Kenny has a real case: he wasn’t as dominant as laver was at rod’s peak, but his consistent excellence over an unfathomable period of time is unprecedented.

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